The global energy watchdog says renewable energy sources are on track to provide almost half of the world's electricity by the end of the decade, but it won't be enough to stick to the 1.5° Celsius limit on global warming.
The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook report on Tuesday forecasts a significantly greater role for solar, wind and other clean technologies with 10 times as many electric cars on the road by 2030.
The agency forecasts the "beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era," saying the momentum behind clean energy transitions is now sufficient for global demand for coal, oil and natural gas to all reach a high point before 2030.
“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. "Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”
Paris-based IAE says immediate pressures from a global energy crisis eased but energy markets, geopolitics, and the economy are unsettled and a risk of more disruption is "ever present," particularly with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Renewables provided 30% of electricity generated worldwide in 2022, according to IEA, and this is expected to rise to nearly 50% by 2030. Hydropower is the largest low-emissions source of electricity today, accounting for 15% of generation.
Solar PV and wind are the main technologies seen as decarbonizing energy supply faster. The share of wind and solar PV in total generation is set to rise from 12% to about 30% by 2030, prompting a need for faster permitting and grid expansion.
Emissions, energy security, jobs
Global average surface temperature is at 1.2° C. above pre‑industrial levels, nearing the 1.5° preferred limit of the legally binding 2015 Paris Agreement, under which nations agreed to hold the line at no more than 2° of warming.
For nations to fulfill their legal obligations under the treaty, IEA says, carbon emissions need to be drastically reduced and investment in fossil fuels must be cut in half.
"The economic case for mature clean energy technologies is strong," it says. "Not all clean technologies are thriving and some supply chains, notably for wind, are under pressure, but there are striking examples of an accelerating pace of change."
Climate change is causing heatwaves and other extreme weather events and greenhouse gas emissions "have not yet peaked," says IEA, and the energy sector also is the primary cause of the polluted air that more than 90% of the world’s population is forced to breathe, linked to 6 million premature deaths a year.
Efforts to improve access to electricity and clean cooking have slowed or even reversed in some countries, but the emergence of a new clean energy economy led by solar PV and electric vehicles still offers some hope with investment in it up by 40% since 2020, according to the IEA.
"The push to bring down emissions is a key reason, but not the only one," its report concludes. "Energy security is also an important factor, particularly in fuel-importing countries, as are industrial strategies and the desire to create clean energy jobs."
The Paris-based energy agency's report, released on Tuesday, was not all doom and gloom. It praised the significant progress countries had made in expanding renewable energy and supporting consumers with the shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps instead of gas boilers.
The report said the growth in clean energy and technologies was "impressive". In 2020, one in 25 cars sold was electric. Just three years later this number has risen to one in five.
"The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it's unstoppable. It's not a question of 'if', it's just a matter of 'how soon' - and the sooner the better for all of us," said International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol.
The report recognised that oil and gas would continue to play a role in the world's economy and that maintaining investment was "essential". But it said at the moment, current levels of funding were double what they should be.
"Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them," Mr Birol said.
In what appeared to be a criticism of the UK and other governments' decisions to open new oil fields, Mr Birol added: "claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world's energy and climate future look weaker than ever."
Earlier this year Rosebank oil field off the coast of Scotland was given the go-ahead amidst much controversy. Environmental campaigners argued the decision was not compliant with the UK's climate change plans. But Claire Coutinho, the government's minister for energy, said at the time: "[The government] will continue to back the UK's oil and gas industry to underpin our energy security".
A spokesperson for the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero said in response to the IEA report that the independent Climate Change Committee recognised oil and gas would continue to be part of the UK's energy mix on the path to net zero.
The world's reliance on fossil fuels means that we are still on track to be facing a global average temperature rise of 2.4C by 2100.
That compares with the pledge made in 2015 when political leaders agreed on limiting temperature rises to "well below" 2C and to make every effort to keep it under 1.5C, to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change.
World leaders will meet in Dubai at the end of November for COP28 - the UN climate summit - where it is hoped further commitments to tackling climate change will be made, including potentially agreeing to phase out "unabated" fossil fuels. Abatement refers to technologies, which are not yet available at scale, that could capture the emissions released when fossil fuels are burned.
The IEA report also reflected concerns about the Middle East. The agency said it was not yet clear what impact rising tensions would have on world energy markets. But the IEA warned that it meant further uncertainty compounding an already unsettled global economy - Middle Eastern countries, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia - account for 67% of world oil reserves.
The report drew parallels with the 1973 oil crisis when Arab oil producers imposed an embargo in response to Western support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war against Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. As a result petrol prices skyrocketed, with knock-on effects on inflation and high unemployment.
The IEA said that this time around the world is also facing the impact of volatile gas prices. The UK increased its imports of LNG following the invasion of Ukraine to reduce its reliance on Russian gas and 14% of the UK's gas is now supplied as LNG from Qatar.
But the agency hoped the establishment and expansion of solar and wind energy will provide a long term solution to energy volatility.
