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WTO raises global trade forecast as AI boom offsets other disruptions

Trade in goods is expected to grow 3.9% in 2026 even as conflict-related disruptions weaken trade in services.

(Miguel A Amutio/Unsplash)

The World Trade Organization sharply raised its forecast for global merchandise trade, citing a surge in investment in artificial intelligence and unexpectedly resilient supply chains despite severe disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

The WTO now expects merchandise trade volume to grow by 3.9% in 2026, more than double its March forecast of 1.9%, before expanding by 4.1% in 2027. The full findings were published on Thursday in the WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics.

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