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El Niño has strengthened into a major global weather threat

WMO expects a very strong event into 2027, prompting an unprecedented mobilization of national weather services.

Workers construct gabion boxes to prepare for the El Niño-related severe flooding threat to communities along the Shabelle River in Beletweyne, Somalia, on October 16, 2023.
Workers construct gabion boxes to prepare for the El Niño-related severe flooding threat to communities along the Shabelle River in Beletweyne, Somalia, on October 16, 2023. (©FAO)

GENEVA (AN) — El Niño is expected to intensify into a very strong event before the end of the year, a sharp escalation from forecasts three months ago that mostly pointed to moderate strength, raising the risks of drought, floods and extreme heat into 2027.

The World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday there is a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, the first time one of its El Niño/La Niña updates has expressed such a high level of certainty.

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