Diplomatic tensions between the United States and South Africa are overshadowing preparations for the Group of 20 summit in November that South Africa will host for the first time on the African continent.
The preparations, more than mid-way through South Africa's G-20 presidency for 2025, face challenges as U.S. President Donald Trump offers mixed signals on his attendance and his administration reportedly scales back G-20 cooperation.
Trump had previously threatened to boycott the summit, citing what he called South Africa's "very bad policies" and unverified claims of "white genocide." However, after a recent meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump's stance appeared to soften slightly.
"No, I think maybe I'll send somebody else, because I've had a lot of problems with South Africa. ... A lot of people are being killed. So I think I probably won't, I'd like to, but I don't think I will," Trump said in late July aboard Air Force One, leaving his final decision ambiguous.
South Africa assumed the G-20 presidency on Dec. 1, 2024, becoming the fourth consecutive G-20 host from the Global South. Pretoria's ambitious agenda focuses on inclusive growth, food security, artificial intelligence, debt relief, and climate finance.
A key event under South Africa’s leadership was the inaugural G-20 Development Working Group Ministerial Meeting in Kruger National Park in late July. Chaired by Maropene Ramokgopa, South Africa's planning minister, the meeting produced the 2025 G-20 Skukuza Development Ministerial Declaration and calls for universal social protection and combating illicit financial flows, both initiatives designed to shape November's leaders’ summit.
"South Africa assumed the presidency of the G-20 at a critical juncture where the world is facing complex challenges, including economic instability, geopolitical tensions, growing inequalities, and climate change, among others," Ramokgopa said of the headwinds her nation faces as the G-2o's leader this year.
"These challenges have a negative impact on our collective resolve to promote sustainable development," she said. "Notwithstanding these dynamics, we remain optimistic of the collective and bold response by the G-20 members, as we work towards attaining our core mandate of promoting global economic cooperation and development, focusing on strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth."
Ramaphosa consistently links South Africa's domestic priorities with the G-20 agenda. On National Women's Day on Saturday, he connected "Building Resilient Economies for All" to the G-20 theme of "Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability," saying that promoting women's economic role aligns with global objectives.
Ramaphosa also reiterates South Africa's commitment to prioritizing African development needs, emphasizing that investments in water and sanitation are "synonymous with the theme of Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability."
Beyond the G-20, South Africa is spearheading a new continental development effort. On Aug. 1, the National Treasury of South Africa and the African Development Bank Group co-hosted a meeting on "South Africa’s Legacy Initiative to accelerate Cross-Border Infrastructure in Africa: The Ubuntu Approach."
This initiative is based on a G-20 Infrastructure Working Group deliverable: a "Toolkit for Developing Cross-Border Infrastructure." The toolkit, developed with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the World Bank, aims to address barriers to planning, financing, and managing projects. The meeting received "overwhelming support," with an action plan expected after the next Infrastructure Working Group meeting in September.
U.S. disengagement and economic pressure
High-level U.S. engagement in G-20 meetings has been visibly reduced. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent skipped a G-20 finance chiefs meeting at Durban in mid-July, his second absence this year, but attended the World Expo in Osaka instead.
South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana downplayed Bessent’s absence, telling the Financial Times he believed the U.S. remained "committed" to the G-20. However, Mark Sobel, a former U.S. Treasury official, called Bessent’s repeated no-show "regrettable widespread disregard for the G-20 this year, and for South Africa."
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also boycotted a G-20 foreign ministers' meeting in Johannesburg in February, publicly saying his decision was to avoid "waste[ing] taxpayer money" and "coddl[ing] anti-Americanism."
The Trump administration escalated tensions in February with an executive order to cut U.S. financial assistance to South Africa. This action has significantly affected South Africa's health system, including a $407 million U.S.-funded HIV program, reportedly leading to 8,000 job losses and disruptions in vital services.
Economic pressure intensified with new U.S. tariffs. On Thursday, fresh U.S. tariffs, ranging from 10% to over 40%, took effect, hitting more than 60 countries, including G-20 members Brazil and Switzerland. Other nations criticized these as "unacceptable blackmail."
South African officials estimate these tariffs could jeopardize around 30,000 jobs. Following phone call on Wednesday with Trump, Ramaphosa's office said both leaders would "continue with further engagements." Godongwana noted that trade disputes, usually not a G-20 finance focus, are now top of the agenda due to the tariff war.
Broader geopolitical context
South Africa's challenge remains complex: championing its development priorities while navigating an unpredictable U.S. administration, without compromising its democratic principles or other global partnerships.
Think tanks are analyzing the G-20's evolving role. Think 20 (T20) South Africa, a policy research group, has been active, urging the G-20 to boost foreign direct investment in Africa and explore nature-based climate solutions.
Chatham House, a U.K.-based think tank, highlighted the challenges of unilateral sanctions in a July 14 paper, arguing such measures increase cooperation among sanctioned nations. It stressed the need for other nations to continue sustainable finance efforts, even as the U.S. pulls back.
The Brookings Institution, a U.S. think tank, emphasizes global cooperation. A July 22 article urged G-20 leaders to advance their action plan to coordinate responses to health, economic, and social crises.
Trump’s criticisms of South Africa contribute to diplomatic and economic strains. He repeats unsubstantiated claims of "white genocide" and land seizures, refuted by Ramaphosa, who states farm attacks are criminal, not racially motivated.
Trump's rhetoric aligns with U.S. political factions and echoes critiques of South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies, which South African billionaire Elon Musk controversially labeled "openly racist."
Despite a "principled, non-aligned stance," South Africa has deepened ties with non-Western partners, especially through BRICS. This includes an Oct. 2024 directive for Taiwan’s liaison office to move and change its name, a move seen as favoring Beijing. It risks undermining South Africa’s democratic values and its $2 billion trade relationship with Taiwan, a key U.S. ally.
Ramaphosa's engagement with Trump aims to stabilize U.S.-South Africa ties and protect vital trade agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act. The G-20 also faces divisions over conflicts and global challenges as Trump prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war.
And as the U.S. itself prepares to assume the G-20 presidency in 2026, Sobel, the former U.S. Treasury official, suggests Trump might aim to "radically streamline a bloated G-20" using the drastic approach he and Musk took to the U.S. federal government.
Administration officials have indicated they want to "pare the Group of 20 major economies back to its financial roots," potentially eliminating many working groups and ministerial meetings.
