Southeast Asian nations wrapped up their annual foreign ministers' meetings by marking a significant diplomatic stride on nuclear disarmament, even as the specter of new U.S. trade tariffs cast a shadow over their economic future.
The four-day gathering that ended on Friday underscored the delicate maneuverings by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as it seeks to maintain stability and prosperity amid escalating strategic competition between Washington and Beijing.
A notable breakthrough at the ASEAN meetings emerged when China confirmed its willingness to sign the protocol to the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone treaty without reservation, a long-sought commitment from the 10-nation bloc. Russia has also reportedly agreed to sign the pact, which aims to legally solidify Southeast Asia's status as a region free of nuclear weapons.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, attending a broader ASEAN regional forum, indicated that Washington was "reviewing its stance" on the protocol, while reiterating the Biden administration's broader commitment to global non-proliferation.
Malaysian Foreign Minister Dato’ Seri Mohamad Hasan, whose nation hosted the gathering, hailed China's pledge as a crucial step toward insulating Southeast Asia from rising international security tensions. However, the diplomatic gesture was met with skepticism from some U.S. allies in the region.
Philippines Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro publicly challenged Beijing to "denuclearize itself first" to demonstrate true sincerity, reflecting lingering distrust over maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
The 58th ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting, held over four days in Kuala Lumpur, was dominated by discussions on fortifying regional economies against external shocks, most notably the looming threat of new U.S. trade tariffs. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim issued a stark warning that global trade was being "weaponized," describing the current climate as "the new weather of our time."
He urged ASEAN members to deepen intra-regional trade and reduce strategic dependencies on external powers, emphasizing that "our cohesion must not end at declarations."
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose significantly higher tariffs on exports from eight ASEAN member states by Aug. 1, unless new trade agreements are finalized.
Following a brief "total reset" in May after previous duties on Chinese goods, the Trump administration this week outlined new tariff rates: 40% on Myanmar and Laos; 36% on Thailand and Cambodia; 32% on Indonesia; 25% on Malaysia and Brunei; and 20% on the Philippines. The White House has also warned of further tariff increases should any affected nation retaliate, raising concerns about a potential global trade spiral.
Rubio, making his first visit to Asia as secretary of state after canceling earlier trips to Japan and South Korea, acknowledged the regional tariff concerns while in Kuala Lumpur. However, he sought to downplay trade as the central focus of his bilateral talks, stating he was "not the trade negotiator."
He instead emphasized that Washington is committed to its regional partners, portraying the United States as a reliable alternative to China for both security and long-term investment.
Beyond economic and geopolitical pressures, significant internal challenges
Despite Rubio's assurances, ASEAN foreign ministers, in their joint statement, voiced concerns over "unilateral actions relating to tariffs," deeming them "counterproductive" to regional growth and stability. Their nuanced position underscored ASEAN's balancing act in attempting to seek robust ties with both global powers while fiercely protecting its economic interests and maintaining strategic autonomy.
Some ASEAN members have initiated bilateral trade discussions with the U.S., with plans for a broader ASEAN-U.S. summit later this year to forge a common position. Only Vietnam has successfully negotiated a new U.S. trade deal, reducing its targeted tariffs from 46% to 20%.
Ministers also advanced discussions on deeper economic integration within the bloc and with key dialogue partners. This includes a potential ASEAN-China strategic partnership and the anticipated signing of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement.
This strengthening economic bond with Beijing is occurring even as some ASEAN nations navigate U.S. pressure on supply chains and prevent the trans-shipment of Chinese goods to bypass U.S. tariffs, reflecting Washington's view of China as a primary strategic competitor across various domains, including technology and trade. The U.S. has also accused Beijing of providing assistance to Russia's military-industrial complex.
Rubio also said he held "positive" and "constructive" talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the ASEAN forum's sidelines. While specific outcomes on tariffs or sensitive issues like Taiwan were not publicly detailed, both officials emphasized the importance of managing differences and exploring areas for cooperation.
America's top diplomat noted a "high probability" of a future meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, signaling a mutual desire for continued high-level engagement despite persistent friction.
Rubio also met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the second in-person meeting between them this year, as Russian intensified its attacks in Ukraine. The talks reportedly included discussions on potential new avenues to jumpstart Ukraine peace talks, suggesting a limited willingness to maintain dialogue with Moscow despite Western condemnation of its actions.
The mounting economic headwinds have already prompted tangible responses, with Malaysia’s central bank cutting its benchmark interest rate this week for the first time in five years. Separately, Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz affirmed his nation's intent to continue tariff talks with the U.S. but said Malaysia would not compromise on issues affecting national interest and sovereignty, citing U.S. requests on areas such as procurement, halal certification, medical standards, and digital tax.
Beyond economic and geopolitical pressures, the bloc continued to contend with significant internal challenges, including the protracted civil war in Myanmar and a lingering border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. The U.S. said it supported ASEAN-led efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis, advocating for an end to violence and a return to democratic governance.
ASEAN leaders underscored the importance of a strategic blueprint for 2045 that broadly aligns with U.S. goals for a free and open Indo-Pacific, but reflects ASEAN's desire to maintain its strategic autonomy amid intensifying great power competition.
The Kuala Lumpur gathering was immediately followed by a series of critical meetings with ASEAN’s major trade partners, including the U.S., China, Japan, Russia, India, and the European Union, that test ASEAN’s ability to navigate its own path and uphold a rules-based trade order.
In a symbolic moment for regional expansion, Timor-Leste's formal accession as ASEAN’s 11th member was confirmed for the 47th ASEAN Summit in October 2025, with other member nations pledging full support for its integration.
