Most of the top 20 biggest energy producing nations plan to raise their production this decade, undermining legally binding climate targets.
Ten countries – Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and the U.S. – seek oil and gas production increases by 2030.
Russia also plans to boost coal production. The U.A.E. is hosting the next climate summit in Dubai starting at the end of November.
Six others, including Australia, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Qatar, plan to raise coal or gas production. Only Germany, Norway and the U.K. seek decreases. No data were available for South Africa.
The nations' plans would more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 that would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5° Celsius, five groups warned in a U.N.-backed Production Gap Report 2023 on Wednesday.
The report is "a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness," said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. "Governments are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production; that spells double trouble for people and planet."
The report from the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development and U.N. Environment Program is timed to prod action at this year's COP28 climate summit.
"Governments should be more transparent in their plans, projections, and support for fossil fuel production and how they align with national and international climate goals," the report said.
'Undermining the energy transition'
Global average surface temperature already is at 1.2° above pre‑industrial levels, nearing the 1.5° preferred limit of the legally binding 2015 Paris Agreement. Nations agreed to hold the line at no more than 2° of warming.
Ploy Achakulwisut, an SEI scientist and lead author of the report, said many governments promote fossil gas as an essential "transition" fuel with no apparent plans to transition away from it later.
“But science says we must start reducing global coal, oil, and gas production and use now," he said, "along with scaling up clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources, and other climate actions to keep the 1.5° goal alive.”
Seventeen of the 20 key countries pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, and many launched initiatives to cut emissions from fossil fuel production, according to UNEP.
Despite that most plan to expand fossil fuel production – and none have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with the 1.5° promise.
“Governments’ plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity’s future into question,” said UNEP's Executive Director Inger Andersen.
“Powering economies with clean and efficient energy is the only way to end energy poverty and bring down emissions at the same time," she said.
